The Federal Reserve's path to interest rate cuts starting in September appeared to widen on Thursday, after a pair of government reports pointed to cooler inflation and signs of potential weakening in the labor market.
U.S. producer prices advanced 2.6% in May from a year earlier, after rising 2.5% in April, the Labor Department reported. Taken together with tamer-than-expected increases in the Consumer Price Index in May, economists estimated that inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying price pressures, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, likely rose in line with the Fed's 2% goal last month.
Economists still expect the Trump administration's tariffs to push up prices and lift inflation later this year, but "the near-term trend remains favorable, enabling the (Fed) to signal next week that it still intends to begin easing policy again later this year," economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote.
They estimate that core PCE rose by just 0.12% in May from April, based on the latest PPI and CPI data. Economists at other Wall Street firms issued similar estimates.
The Fed is nearly universally expected to leave its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its June 17-18 meeting. Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate show traders now expect a quarter-percentage-point reduction by September, with another such move likely in October. Before Thursday's data, traders had expected the Fed to wait until December to deliver a second rate cut. The U.S. central bank cut rates three times in 2024.
A separate Labor Department report on Thursday showed initial weekly claims for jobless benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 248,000 for the week ended June 7, while continuing claims jumped to 1.951 million, their highest level since November 2021 and a sign that it is getting harder for unemployed workers to find a new job.
"Americans, especially recent graduates, are worried about how hard it is to find a job," said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "If layoffs worsen this summer, it will heighten fears of a recession and consumer spending pullback."
Source: Investing.com
Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), fell to 2.6% annually in August from 3.3% in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) repor...
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total Nonfarm employment for March 2025 is...
The United States government has already collected tens of billions of dollars from President Donald Trump's "reciprocal tariffs." But that money and a lot more could end up being refunded if the Sup...
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday thousands of foreign troops could be deployed to his country under post-war security guarantees, but Russian leader Vladimir Putin said Moscow wo...
The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, possibly bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates at its next policy meeting later this month. Data from the L...
Gold surged near a record high of $3,650 an ounce on Wednesday (September 10) after an unexpected decline in US producer prices reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates at its meeting next week. Both...
Oil prices rose for a third straight session as investors weighed President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against buyers of Russian crude, the impact of the Israeli strikes on Doha, and the prospect of a US interest rate cut. Brent traded...
Producer inflation in the United States, as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), fell to 2.6% annually in August from 3.3% in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. This figure was lower than...
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the 2025 preliminary benchmark revision to the Establishment Survey Data on...
Russian forces attacked a thermal power plant in the Kyiv region as part of an overnight attack, Ukraine's Energy Ministry said on Monday,...
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark...
European shares finished higher on Monday, while French stocks also rose as investors stayed calm in the run-up to a no-confidence vote later in the...